Why Home Robberies Rise When the Clocks Change – and How to Stay Ahead This Winter

Every year, when the clocks go back, the rhythm of daily life changes - and so do the tactics used by organised criminals. Longer nights, earlier darkness and predictable evening routines combine to create a seasonal spike in residential break-ins, particularly around high-value homes and estates.

For high-net-worth families, principals, and the PAs or estate managers who run their households, this seasonal shift isn’t just inconvenient - it’s a vulnerability that needs attention. If you’re already considering whether winter is the right moment to review your protection, it probably is. And if you’re looking for a starting point, VIS provides a clear winter-focused assessment through our residential security services.

Winter shouldn’t compromise your safety - and with the right preparation, it won’t.

Why crime increases when the clocks change

When clocks shift back in late October, the first obvious change is earlier darkness. But from a security perspective, several smaller, more subtle shifts occur at the same time, and together they create a perfect window of opportunity for intruders:

1. Darkness masks reconnaissance

Most break-ins are preceded by hostile surveillance. Shorter days make early evening reconnaissance harder to spot - unusual vehicles, individuals scoping entry points, or repeated passes outside a property can all blend into normal winter activity if proper monitoring isn’t in place.

2. Predictable early-evening absences

Families returning home from work, staff leaving at set times, school-run routines - these patterns become more visible when darkness falls before 5pm.

For high-profile households, visibility isn’t just digital; it’s behavioural. A predictable routine is an opportunity.

3. Multi-property households appear unoccupied

HNW families frequently move between homes during the winter period. Unoccupied estates - or those that appear unoccupied due to lack of lighting or movement - become high-value targets.

4. Busy winter diaries

Dinners, events, launches, Christmas commitments and international travel all increase sharply in November and December. For those with a public profile, this movement is often visible online - allowing intruders to identify the perfect moment.

None of this means risk must increase. But it does mean your security approach must adapt.

Who is most at risk during winter months?

Criminals don’t only target wealth - they target predictability. And for many high-value households, winter amplifies routine.

Principals, public figures and influencers

Evening events and media commitments increase exposure. Homes are often unoccupied earlier in the day until later at night.

HNW families

Larger estates with multiple access points, outbuildings and long driveways become harder to monitor in darkness without a physical presence.

PAs, Private Offices and Estate Managers

You are often the first to notice gaps - from contractors coming after dark to unexpected vehicle activity.

Travelling executives

Visibility increases when travel patterns are consistent and public.

The people who work around a principal - household managers, personal assistants, drivers - play a central role in spotting early signs of risk. When visibility changes, small gaps become big problems.

How intruders exploit the winter season

Based on real residential patterns we see across London, Surrey, Cheshire, Dublin, Kildare and Northern Ireland, winter robberies are rarely random. They follow predictable strategies:

1. Targeting unlit or poorly monitored areas

Side gates, garden paths, secondary entrances and unlit driveways offer excellent concealment. Many attempts begin at these points.

2. Testing access before entering

Intruders often try doors or outbuildings discreetly in early evening darkness, long before an actual break-in. These “door tests” are often missed without active monitoring.

3. Focusing on vehicles and outbuildings

High-value garages, car barns, annexes and guest houses are common weak points. They may be alarmed - but rarely monitored physically.

4. Exploiting understaffed periods

Domestic staff and contractors often change schedules in winter. Fewer people on-site = fewer deterrents.

5. Watching travel - not just the property

If a principal is abroad, attending an event, dining somewhere high-profile or publicly visible through media appearances, intruders know the likelihood of someone home is reduced.

The threat is rarely loud, fast or chaotic. It’s usually quiet, planned and opportunistic - exactly why visibility matters.

What a proactive winter security plan looks like

Good residential security is not about heavy-handed presence. It’s about intelligence, anticipation and subtle prevention - especially during darker months.

1. Layered external lighting

This includes driveways, gardens, rear entries and approach routes. But lighting must be risk-informed, not excessive or performative.

2. Occupancy simulation

Making a property appear occupied when it isn’t is one of the simplest, most effective deterrents - but only when done strategically.

3. Adjusted patrol routes

Winter requires a different physical approach: more perimeter checks, closer attention to blind spots, greater variation in internal patrols.

4. Tightened access control

Domestic staff, contractors and visitors often increase before Christmas. Every arrival and departure should be monitored and logged.

5. Enhanced surveillance review

Darkness affects camera performance. Reviewing angle, coverage and quality before winter is essential.

6. Real-time response capability

A threat detected in darkness needs immediate action. Remote security cannot guarantee that. A trained on-site presence can.

How VIS strengthens winter protection

At VIS Protection, our approach to winter residential security is built around quiet confidence and proactive prevention. Every estate receives a winter-specific assessment, carried out by former military and police professionals who understand how intruders think - and how to stay several moves ahead.

Our team provides:

• 24/7 protection tailored to your family’s movements

• Real-time monitoring of all approach routes

• Intelligent lighting and occupancy planning

• Patrols adapted for darkness and reduced visibility

• Full coordination with PAs, estate managers and private offices

• Rapid response capability at a moment’s notice

  
  

We don’t just secure properties - we protect lifestyles.

Winter security guidance for PAs and estate managers

If you manage a household, you are the gatekeeper - and winter is the moment when your observations matter most.

Before the clocks change, review:

Access & Entries

• Have all locks, gates, sensors and alarms been tested?

• Are there any blind spots in garden routes or secondary entrances?

  
  

Lighting & Visibility

• Are external lighting timers updated for new daylight hours?

• Are driveways and side paths sufficiently lit?

  
  

Staff Movements

• Will winter schedules reduce the number of people on-site?

• Are there contractors attending after dark?

  
  

Technology & Monitoring

• Do cameras perform clearly at night?

• Are there areas where image quality drops?

  
  

Travel-Planned Absences

• Do principals have events, trips or seasonal commitments that increase exposure?

• Are those movements visible online or publicly?

  
  

You don’t need to handle everything alone - this is precisely why principals work with specialist residential teams who integrate seamlessly into existing operations.

A final thought

When the clocks change, the threat doesn’t suddenly appear - it simply becomes easier for hostile individuals to hide. Good security adapts long before something happens. Winter should never change the way you live, and it certainly shouldn’t change how safe you feel at home. Book a winter security assessment with VIS and stay ahead of seasonal risks before they surface.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Winter Security

1. Why do home robberies increase when the clocks go back?

Earlier darkness creates natural concealment, making it easier for intruders to carry out reconnaissance and approach properties unnoticed. Many households also follow more predictable routines in winter, giving criminals clearer patterns to exploit.

2. Which homes are most at risk during winter?

High-value homes with large grounds, multiple access points or long, unlit driveways are more vulnerable. Properties belonging to high-profile individuals - especially those who travel frequently or attend public events - are also at elevated risk.

3. What winter security measures make the biggest difference?

Strategic external lighting, updated alarm systems, night-time patrols, revised access control and occupancy simulation significantly reduce risk. A trained residential security presence provides the strongest deterrent and response capability.

4. How can PAs or estate managers improve household security in darker months?

Review lighting timers, contractor access, CCTV coverage, staff schedules, alarm maintenance and any predictable absences. Coordinating with a professional residential team ensures these gaps are addressed proactively.

5. How can VIS Protection support families during the winter season?

VIS provides veteran-led residential security, tailored patrol routes, 24/7 monitoring, proactive winter risk assessments and seamless integration with household staff. We focus on protecting families quietly, professionally and without intrusion.